The NH High SR Non-Handicap Fav System for National Hunt Racing


March 12, 2017 Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+ Horse Racing Betting



The NH High SR Non-Handicap Fav System

This system below is designed for National Hunt racing.

Rule 1: Non-Handicap races only.
For this system to we do not include handicap races, which are more difficult to get profitable systems out of. Although when you do they are more profitable than non-handicap races.

Rule 2: Forecast Favourite only (if joint VOID bet)
Just to make sure we have one clear qualifier for our non-handicap race.

Rule 3: Forecast price must be odds on.
The lower the odds the more likely it is to win, although the lower the odds the smaller the profit for a new bank.

The first 3 rules of any systems I quantify as the main system rules, they ensure we have the main set of qualifiers we are looking for. Those rules after, I regard as filters to take out any facts I know are not profitable long term.

Rule 4: Horse age must be 6+
This is because in the UK, horses are not generally full wound up for jumping until they are at least 6, so those of a lower age have erratic results that do not prove profitable, so they are not included in this system.

Rule 5: Horse must have finished 2nd or worse on its last run.
Horses that won last time out usually go off at lower odds than they should, so an edge is taken away.

Rule 6: Must be a gelding.
Geldings win the majority of races over fences, and are generally have the most consistent and reliable form.

Rule 7: Going must be Good-Soft or better.
Any softer than this and results can get a bit random.

That is it. Over the last 10 years it has produced a 48pt profit even at those low odds, and a 63% SR overall. It has had 3 losing years in that period, the worst being 5pts, but using the betting exchange prices, they would also have shown a profit.. There are around 100 bets per year.

So you can see by this example, it does not profit every year, but long term it still shows a profit, and it is long term that any professional gambler will tell you is the only time span that matters.

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